It will nationalize its oil industry and move closer to the United States, join the Allies and contribute to the war effort, mostly through its air volunteers, the 'Aztec Eagles'. The historical path leads to an economy-minded Mexico with a secular, Democratic (at least nominally) state under the Partido Revolucionario Institucional.
Without the expansion, it utilizes the Generic national focus tree instead. Mexico gets a unique national focus tree with the Man the Guns expansion. Available only with the Man the Guns DLC enabled.